Gerry Thornley: Set-piece will be crucial if Ireland are to beat All Blacks

One year and one month on, that World Cup quarter-final is no easier to revisit, and when analysing the causes of Ireland’s defeat, their set-piece was undoubtedly a big factor which they have clearly identified when the sides meet again at the Aviva.
On another night Ireland might have won regardless, and the equally epic quarter-final between France and South Africa the following day could easily have gone either way too and, no less so, the All Blacks could well have won the final. The best sides don’t always win knock-out tournaments.
Therein lay the rub with that World Cup. Two of the best four sides in the tournament had to follow each other out of the tournament on that third last weekend of the tournament. But, with the margin always going to be wafer thin, Ireland’s set-piece needed to be closer to perfection.
Going into the quarter-final the All Blacks repeatedly reminded themselves that they didn’t have to be the best team at the World Cup or in the world, they just had to be better on the night.
To that end, once again their lineout had a 100 per cent return, as it did until a couple of blemishes in the final. Also to that end, their handling errors were so scarce that Ireland didn’t have one scrum on their own put in.
Furthermore, of the All Blacks’ five scrums, Andrew Porter was penalised on three of them by Wayne Barnes. Certainly Porter himself was haunted for months by Barnes’ interpretations, and afterwards it was clear that Andy Farrell, Paul O’Connell and Peter O’Mahony did not agree with the English official.
The statistics will show that Ireland only lost three of their 14 lineouts in the quarter-final, yet what must have particularly frustrated O’Connell, James Ryan, Tadhg Beirne, Peter O’Mahony and co is that so many of Ireland’s lost lineouts at the World Cup were in the opposition 22, especially in the pool win over South Africa.
Twice they went to the corner in the opening 25 minutes against the All Blacks only for Brodie Retallick and Shannon Frizell to pick off Dan Sheehan’s throws. How differently might the quarter-final have panned out otherwise?
Ireland’s overall 82.5 per cent lineout success was ranked 13th out of the 20 teams in the World Cup, having been fourth in defending their Six Nations title with an 85.7 per cent success rate.
Against that, it should be pointed out that Ireland’s defensive lineout was very good. Their 12 steals was bettered only by England, South Africa, and New Zealand, while only Argentina had a higher percentage of steals on the opposition throw than Ireland’s near one-in-four.
What’s particularly relevant about all of this is that Ireland score more tries off their lineout than most teams, and ultimately in that quarter-final their lineout clicked in the second half, earning a penalty try, as well as a yellow card for Codie Taylor, before Ronan Kelleher was held up over the line by Jordie Barrett.
But for the future Leinster centre’s intervention that night, Ireland’s lineout maul would have been hailed as the primary reason for an 18th win in a row and a place in the semi-finals.
Kelleher’s fitness, along with Taylor’s absence, looks significant this evening, not least in the context of the lineout. Asafo Aumua is a powerful, mobile, energetic hooker but doesn’t have Taylor’s throwing experience and Tupou Vaa’I is a wonderful lineout operator who had to be sacrificed for the injection of Patrick Tuipulotu in the final quarter against England last week.
Ireland’s lineout usually functions better with James Ryan, who has become a world-class operator on both his own throw and the opposition’s, while O’Mahony will heighten that threat in the final 20 or 30 minutes at the Aviva this evening.
Furthermore, in the absence of Tadhg Furlong, recalling Iain Henderson to the bench looks like it has in mind adding some horsepower to the Irish scrum and maul.